Predicted Grades: How They Are Decided, and What to Do If Yours Are Too Low

Predicted grades decide which universities will seriously consider you, and almost nobody explains how they are actually produced. They are not calculated by a formula, they are not issued by UCAS, and they are not a promise. They are your school's professional judgement, made under a policy you can usually ask to see.

Here is how they work, what the evidence says about how accurate they are, and what your options actually are if yours have come back lower than you need for 2027 entry.

What a predicted grade is

A predicted grade is your centre's estimate of the grade you are most likely to achieve in a qualification you have not yet completed. It goes into the qualifications section of your UCAS application, entered by your school or college.

Three things follow from that definition and each one surprises applicants:

1. You do not enter them. You cannot type an optimistic grade into your own application.
2. They are not binding on anyone. Missing a prediction has no formal consequence. What matters is the offer you hold and the grades you get.
3. They are not the same as your target grade. Targets are motivational. Predictions are meant to be a realistic best estimate, which is precisely why they are sometimes lower than the grade you have been told to aim for.

Predictions are also separate from the reference. The reference may describe how your centre arrives at predictions, but the grades themselves live in the qualifications section. See our guide to what the UCAS reference now contains.

How schools actually decide them

There is no national formula. Every centre sets its own policy, and the good ones publish it. In practice, most predictions are built from some combination of:

• Mock exam performance, usually the largest single input
• Coursework and non-exam assessment marks where the qualification has them
• Classwork, homework and in-class assessments across the year
• Prior attainment, for example GCSE grades feeding a statistical baseline
• Trajectory, whether you are improving or drifting
• Departmental moderation, so one generous teacher does not distort the whole cohort

Most schools then moderate across the centre, because a school whose predictions are wildly optimistic year after year loses credibility with admissions tutors who have seen its record.

If you do not know what your school's policy is, ask. It is a completely reasonable question in September, and it tells you which assessment actually matters.

The uncomfortable evidence on accuracy

Predicted grades are not very accurate, and the direction of the error is consistent.

The most-cited analysis of UK predictions found that only about 16 per cent of applicants were predicted correctly across their best three A-levels, roughly 75 per cent were over-predicted, and only about 8 per cent were under-predicted. Looking at individual grades rather than whole profiles, around half of predictions are accurate and something like 42 to 44 per cent are over-predicted by at least one grade.

Two implications worth sitting with:

• If your prediction feels generous, it probably is. Most students do not reach their predictions. Building a five-choice list as though you certainly will is the single most common planning error.
• Under-prediction is rare but real, and it is not evenly distributed. Research has repeatedly found that lower-attaining students tend to be over-predicted while higher-attaining students are predicted more accurately, and that disadvantaged applicants finish further below their predictions than advantaged ones. Accuracy also varies sharply by centre type.

None of that means your prediction is wrong. It means predictions are estimates with a known bias, and universities know it too. Admissions tutors read predictions in the context of the school, which is exactly what the reformed reference is for.

What to do if your predictions are lower than you need

1. Ask, early, and bring evidence

You can ask your school to review a prediction, but only before the application is sent. Once it is with UCAS, it is fixed.

Make it a factual case, not an appeal:

• A recent mock or assessment that is materially better than the one the prediction was based on
• A coursework mark that has come in above expectation
• Evidence that a specific bad result was unrepresentative, for example illness on the day
• A clear upward trajectory across the year

What does not work: arguing that you need a higher grade because the course requires it. Everybody needs a higher grade. Teachers are predicting what you are likely to get, not what you would like to be asked for.

2. Do not write off courses one grade above

A prediction one grade below a standard offer is not a wasted choice. Universities routinely make offers to applicants predicted slightly below, particularly where the rest of the application is strong. What you should not do is aim all five choices above your predictions. A sensible spread looks like:

That structure means results day has an outcome you are happy with in every realistic scenario. See how to choose your five universities.

3. Check whether you qualify for a contextual offer

Many universities reduce their requirements, typically by one or two grades and occasionally more, for applicants who meet widening participation criteria. Eligibility is often about your postcode, your school's performance, whether you were in care, or whether you completed an access scheme. It is worth checking course by course, because criteria and reductions differ at every institution and the reduction is frequently larger than the gap you are worrying about.

4. Make the part you control excellent

You cannot change your prediction after submission. You can still change your statement, right up to the moment you send the application.

This is the practical reason the personal statement matters most to the applicants who need it most. When an admissions tutor is looking at someone predicted a grade below the standard offer, the statement is the only evidence available about how that applicant thinks about the subject. A specific, well-argued statement is what makes a borderline case worth taking a chance on. A generic one makes the decision easy in the wrong direction.

What happens on results day

Predictions vanish the moment real grades exist. On results day:

• Meet your firm offer's conditions and your place is confirmed.
• Narrowly miss and the university may still confirm you. This happens far more often than students expect, particularly where the course has places.
• Miss by more and your insurance choice is considered next.
• Miss both and Clearing opens, with real places on real courses.

Nobody at any point compares your results to your predictions and holds the gap against you. See our results day guide and what to say on a Clearing phone call.

Check the part of the application you can still change

Your grades are largely decided by exams you have not sat and predictions you cannot edit. Your personal statement is the one part of the application that is entirely in your hands today.

Statementory scores your statement out of 100 against the criteria admissions tutors actually use, then gives you line-by-line feedback, before-and-after rewrites and a 10-step improvement plan in 5 to 10 minutes. No account needed, from £9.99. It reviews what you wrote and never writes it for you.

The bottom line

Predicted grades are your school's best estimate, produced under a local policy, and the research says most of them are generous rather than harsh. If yours are lower than you need, ask for a review early with concrete evidence, keep an aspirational choice or two anyway, check contextual offer eligibility, and put your remaining effort into the statement, which is the only part of the application you can still meaningfully improve.

Sources

• UCAS: predicted grades, what you need to know for entry this year
• UCU: Predicted grades, accuracy and impact (2016)
• Department for Business, Innovation and Skills: Investigating the accuracy of predicted A level grades

Figures and processes described here were correct at the time of writing (August 2026). Your centre sets its own predicted grades policy, so confirm the detail with your school or college.